Winter Climate Outlook

What is happening this winter?

A high probability of above-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country for late-autumn to early-winter and mostly below-normal rainfall during mid-winter. However, the rainfall forecast for the winter rainfall region, south and south-western parts of the country indicates a mixed forecast with uncertain rainfall conditions at this stage. Therefore, the relevant decision makers are encouraged to advise farmers in these regions to adopt proper drainage systems, water harvesting and storage where possible. Mostly abovenormal minimum and maximum temperatures are expected over the country with isolated parts indicating below-normal temperatures. Decision makers may advise farmers to practice appropriate farming practices for the areas with below normal rainfall to avoid frost damage.

Figure 1 May-June-July 2021 (MJJ; left), June-July-August 2021 (JJA; right) seasonal precipitation prediction. Maps indicate the highest probability from three probabilistic categories namely Above-Normal, Near-Normal and Below-Normal.

The following maps indicate the rainfall and temperature (minimum and maximum) climatology for late-autumn – early-winter (May-Jun-Jul) and mid-winter (Jun-Jul-Aug). The rainfall and temperature climate is representative of the average rainfall and temperature conditions over a long period of time for the relevant 3-month seasons presented here.

Figure 2 Climatological seasonal totals for precipitation during May-June-July (MJJ; left) and June-July-August (JJA; right).
 
(Sourced from: https://www.weathersa.co.za/images/data/longrange/gfcsa/scw.pdf
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